The global implications of Chinas rise as a global actor

In 2005, a senior official in the George W. Bush administration expressed the hope that China would emerge as a “responsible stakeholder” on the world stage. A dozen years later, the Trump administration dramatically shifted course, instead calling China a “strategic competitor” whose actions routinely threaten U.S. interests.

Both assessments reflected an underlying truth: China is no longer just a “rising” power. It has emerged as a truly global actor, both economically and militarily. Every day its actions affect nearly every region and every major issue, from climate change to trade, from conflict in troubled lands to competition over rules that will govern the uses of emerging technologies.

To better address the implications of Chinas new status, both for American policy and for the broader international order, Brookings scholars conducted research over the past two years, culminating in a project: Global China: Assessing Chinas Growing Role in the World. The project is intended to furnish policy makers and the public with hard facts and deep insights for understanding Chinas regional and global ambitions.

The initiative draws not only on Brookingss deep bench of China and East Asia experts, but also on the tremendous breadth of the institutions security, strategy, regional studies, technological, and economic development experts.

Areas of focus include the evolution of Chinas domestic institutions; great power relations; the emergence of critical technologies; Asian security; Chinas influence in key regions beyond Asia; and Chinas impact on global governance and norms.

Global China: Assessing Chinas Growing Role in the World provides the most current, broad-scope, and fact-based assessment of the implications of Chinas rise for the United States and the rest of the world.

Tarun Chhabra was a senior fellow at Georgetown Universitys Center for Security and Emerging Technology, and director of the Brookings Institutions Project on International Order and Strategy. He previously served on the National Security Council staff and Department of Defense. He has written on U.S. grand strategy, U.S.-China relations, and U.S.- allied technology cooperation.Rush Doshi is a former director of the Brookings China Strategy Initiative and fellow in the Brookings Foreign Policy program. He is also a former fellow at Yale Law Schools Paul Tsai China Center. He is the author of The Long Game: Chinas Grand Strategy to Displace American Order.Ryan Hass is the Armacost Chair in the Foreign Policy program at Brookings. Hass also is a nonresident fellow at Yale Law Schools Tsai China Center, and a senior advisor at McLarty Associates and The Scowcroft Group. He is author of Stronger: Adapting Americas China Strategy in an Age of Competitive Interdependence.Emilie Kimball is an executive assistant in the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution. Prior to working at Brookings, she served as a staff officer on the National Security Council from 2015 to 2018, where she helped manage the national security decisionmaking process and staffed the President on foreign travel.

Contents:

Acknowledgments

Introduction, Tarun Chhabra, Rush Doshi, Ryan Hass, and Emilie Kimball

Section 1: Domestic Politics

1. Hus to Blame for Chinas Foreign Assertiveness?, Rush Doshi

2. Beijings Nonmilitary Coercion—Tactics and Rationale, Ketian Zhang

3. Xi Jinpings “Proregress”: Domestic Moves toward a Global China, Cheng Li

Section 2: East Asia

4. Trying to Loosen the Linchpin: Chinas Approach to South Korea, Jung H. Pak

5. Lips and Teeth: Repairing China–North Korea Relations, Evans J. R. Revere

6. From Persuasion to Coercion: Beijings Approach to Taiwan and Taiwans Response, Richard Bush

7. How Chinas Actions in the South China Sea: Undermine the Rule of Law, Lynn Kuok

8. The U.S.-China Nuclear Relationship: Why Competition Is Likely to Intensify, Caitlin Talmadge

Section 3: Great Powers

9. China and the Return of Great Power: Strategic Competition, Bruce Jones

10. U.S.-China Relations: The Search for a New Equilibrium, Ryan Hass

11. China, Japan, and the Art of Economic Statecraft, Mireya Solís

12. Managing China: Competitive Engagement, with Indian Characteristics, Tanvi Madan

13. Russia and China: Axis of Revisionists?, Angela Stent

14. Europe Changes Its Mind on China, Thomas Wright

Section 4: Technology

15. Preparing the United States for the Superpower Marathon with China, Michael Brown, Eric Chewning, and Pavneet Singh

16. Navigating the U.S.-China 5G Competition, Nicol Turner Lee

17. Managing Chinas Rise in Outer Space, Frank A. Rose

18. Dealing with Global Demand for Chinas Surveillance Exports, Sheena Chestnut Greitens

19. Maintaining Chinas Dependence on Democracies for Advanced Computer Chips, Saif M. Khan and Carrick Flynn

20. Artificial Intelligence and Autonomy in Chinas Drive for Military Innovation, Elsa B. Kania

21. Chinas Role in the Global Biotechnology Sector and Implications for U.S. Policy, Scott Moore

Section 5: Regional Influence and Strategy

22. China and Latin America: A Pragmatic Embrace, Ted Piccone

23. The Middle East and a Global China: Israel amid U.S.-China Competition, Natan Sachs and Kevin Huggard

Saudi Arabias Relations with China, Bruce Riedel

24. Great Expectations: The Unraveling of the Australia-China Relationship, Natasha Kassam

25. The Risks of Chinas Ambitions in the South Pacific, Jonathan Pryke

26. China, the Gray Zone, and Contingency Planning at the Department of Defense and Beyond, Michael OHanlon

27. All That Xi Wants: China Attempts to Ace Bases Overseas, Leah Dreyfuss and Mara Karlin

Section 6: The Global Economy

28. Reluctant Player: Chinas Approach to International Economic Institutions, David Dollar

29. The Renminbis Prospects as an International Currency, Eswar Prasad

30. Chinas Digital Services Trade and Data Governance: How Should the United States Respond?, Joshua P. Meltzer

31. Chinas Influence on the Global Middle Class, Homi Kharas and Meagan Dooley

32. The Global Energy Trades New Center of Gravity, Samantha Gross

33. Can the United States and China Reboot: Their Climate Cooperation?, Todd Stern

Section 7: Global Governance

34. International Law with Chinese Characteristics: Assessing Chinas Role in the “Rules-Based” Global Order, Robert D. Williams

35. Chinas Expanding Influence at the United Nations—and How the United States Should React, Jeffrey Feltman

36. Chinas Influence on the United Nations Human Rights System, Sophie Richardson

37. How to Curb Chinas System of Oppression in Xinjiang, Dahlia Peterson and James Millward

Contributors

Index

"Put simply, no international relationship will be more consequential in the twenty-first century than that of the United States and China. Responding to this pressing need, the Brookings project Global China: Assessing Chinas Growing Role in the World provides both unprecedented breadth and depth in the evaluation of Chinas actions, and their implications for U.S. interests and values." John R. Allen, president, the Brookings Institution "For as long as I can remember, the breathless pace of change in China meant you had to see it firsthand, on a regular basis, to make sense of political, economic, and social developments. Global China provides that perspective to get past the unfortunate tendency to simply admire the problem, helpfully identifying comparative advantages and vulnerabilities brought by Beijings expanding interests, making it a ;welcome tool for strategists and policymakers." David Stilwell, former assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs "If we expect to successfully counter the threats that China poses to U.S. economic and national security, we must first understand the complexity of the challenge, and then develop short- and long-term strategies that are comprehensive and multilateral. This book effectively underscores the most serious issues that lawmakers must consider in dealing with Chinas rise, and provides a number of noteworthy recommendations going forward." U.S. Sen. Mark R. Warner, chairman, Senate Select Committee on Intelligence "Chinas transformation from a regional actor to global power and geopolitical rival will have profound implications for the national security of the United States, our partners, and our allies. Leveraging the insights of an impressive array of experts, this volume provides a clear set of recommendations designed to ensure that the United States can effectively contend with a rapidly shifting global environment." U.S. Rep. Adam Schiff, chairman, House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence