Everything you need to know about election polls can be found in this compact, conversational, and current volume. When it comes to tapping the public's opinion on candidates and issues at the ballot box, the stakes are high. Acclaimed scholars Michael W. Traugott and Paul J. Lavrakas-who also have regularly conducted polls, not just studied them-cover the latest technologies used for data collection and data analysis, including internet polls, as well as how polls are used in campaigns and media organizations. In straightforward language and an accessible question-and-answer format, the authors cover issues such as: How do political candidates and organizations use poll data? How do news organizations collect and report polls? Why do pollsters use samples? Can internet polls really reflect a representative swath of the population? They also examine common problems and complaints about polls, such as the increasing use of "push polls" and whether polls can impact how citizens vote. Their decades of experience and insight not only answer the nuts and bolts questions, but most importantly, why it all matters in American democracy.
Michael W. Traugott is a political scientist and survey methodologist. He is a Professor Emeritus of Communication Studies and Political Science and Research Professor Emeritus in the Center for Political Studies at the Institute for Social Research at the University of Michigan. His main research areas of interest are public opinion and political communication, and he has studied the use of polls in the new media. Currently his research focuses on how members of the public understand and interpret poll results through the process of motivated reasoning. He has served as the president of the American Association for Public Opinion Research and the World Association for Public Opinion Research, and he has been recognized for distinguished lifetime achievement by both organizations. He has served as a consultant to media organizations and is interviewed frequently about electoral politics and polling issues. Paul J. Lavrakas is a research psychologist, and since 2007 has served as an international methodological research consultant for several universities, not for profit and for-profit companies, and government agencies. He was a tenured Full Professor at Northwestern University (1978-1996) and Ohio State University (1996-2000), and was the founding faculty director of the Northwestern University Survey Lab (1982-1996) and the OSU Center for Survey Research (1996-2000). From 2000-2007 he was Vice President and chief methodologist for Nielsen Media Research. He played a major role in introducing dual frame RDD surveying in the United States, Australia, and Japan. In the past decade, he has helped to develop methods for the creation of probability-based online panels in the U.S. and in Australia. Among his many publications, he is the editor of the Encyclopedia of Survey Research Methods (Sage, 2008). He has conducted preelection polls and served the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) as its President in 2012-2013, was co-winner of the AAPOR Innovators Award in 2003, received the AAPOR Award for Exceptionally Distinguished Achievement in 2019, and was the co-winner of the 2021 AAPOR Book Award.
Introduction Chapter 1 What Are Polls and Surveys? And Why Are They Conducted? Chapter 2 What Are Election Polls? How Are They Conducted? Chapter 3 How Do Political Candidates and Organizations Use Poll Data? Chapter 4 How Do News Organizations Collect and Report Poll Data? Chapter 5 Why Do Pollsters Use Samples? Chapter 6 How Are Questionnaires Put Together? Chapter 7 How Are Data Gathered for Election Polls? Chapter 8 How Do Media Organizations Analyze Polls? Chapter 9 How Can I Evaluate Published Poll Results? Chapter 10 What Are Some Common Problems and Complaints about Polls and the Media's Use of Them? Epilogue Appendix A: Standards for Disclosing Information about the Methodology of Public Polls Appendix B: Sample Tolerances (Sampling Errors) for Samples of Different Sizes Glossary Selected References About the Authors
